Au programme de la conférence "COVID-19, Economic and Financial Shocks: Death Knell for a Globalized World?"
Analysts began to talk of a 15 to 25 % contraction in US and Eurozone GDP in the second quarter of 2020. China, where the crisis started, has shown the way, 70 % of its economy shut down in February, with manufacturing and non-manufacturing activities collapsing.
The entire world is facing a deflationary depression, an offer and demand shock, perhaps the biggest crisis since WWII.
Financial markets and oil price collapsed…This triggered unprecedented Governments and Central Bank actions. In the USA, the US Treasury announced a massive $2.2 trillion coronavirus pandemic relief and stimulus package. The FED programs are considerably more aggressive and done in quicker ways than what happened during the 2008-09 financial crisis : it could take the FED balance sheet from 4 to as high as $10 trillion …On the other side of the Atlantic, the corona bond disputes is tearing Europe apart. The ECB, after announcing a totally inappropriate €120 billion in additional bond-buying, will finally do “as much as necessary and for as long as needed” : the Central Bank announced a €750 billion Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP). In reality, a last minute move to prevent a collapse of Italy's sovereign debt, which in turn would have set off a chain-reaction and could have blown up the European monetary union in a matter of days...
Peter Navarro, the White House trade advisor, author of the book, “Death by China“, has been appointed national Defense Policy Act coordinator. Wartime economy is ahead, in a context of struggle for Hegemony between the US and China … Death knell for the globalized world of the last 30 years or so?
A propos de notre expert : Pr. Laurent ESTACHY
Laurent Estachy est actuellement professeur en finance internationale et géo-économie à KEDGE. Il intervient sur les principaux campus du Groupe à Bordeaux, Marseille, Paris et Shanghai et plus particulièrement pour le programme Global Executive MBA. Ces recherches concernent plus particulièrement les interactions entre marchés globaux de capitaux et géopolitiques.
Laurent Estachy a occupé précédemment des postes seniors dans la Banque d’investissement : trading salle de marchés des changes BNP Paris, puis Vice President Rabobank International – Paris Branch, département trésorerie/changes.
Laurent Estachy est titulaire d’un Doctorat de l’Université de Nice Sophia Antipolis, macroéconomie et Finance Internationale, ainsi que d’un Executive MBA d’HEC Jouy-en- Josas.